Author: ksnuderl

  • Statistični dan 2019: Spoznajmo digitalizacijo

    Tradicionalni Statistični dan se bo odvijal v torek, 12. 2. 2019, v Kongresnem centru Brdo na Brdu pri Kranju. 

    Tema letošnjega dogodka bo SPOZNAJMO DIGITALIZACIJO in bo potekalo v treh sklopih:

    Predstavitve: Digitalizacija spreminja svet
    Okrogla miza: Izzivi digitalizacije
    Podelitev priznanj Statističnega društva Slovenije 

    Udeležba je brezplačna.

    Prijave sprejemajo do 5. februarja 2019 prek prijavnega obrazca.

    Več o temi posveta lahko preberete na spletni strani Statističnega urada RS

    Dogodek bo trajal približno od 10. do 16. ure. 

    Za dodatna vprašanja so organizatorji vam na voljo na e-naslovu stat-d.surs@gov.si.

  • Metodološki zvezki, Vol. 15, No. 1 & 2, 2018

    Advances in Methodology and Statistics

    Comparing Two Partitions of Non-Equal Sets of Units                                       

    2018    Marjan Cugmas and Anuška Ferligoj; 15(1):1-21

    Rand (1971) proposed what has since become a well-known index for comparing two partitions obtained on the same set of units. The index takes a value on the interval between 0 and 1, where a higher value indicates more similar partitions. Sometimes, e.g. when the units are observed in two time periods, the splitting and merging of clusters should be considered differently, according to the operationalization of the stability of clusters. The Rand Index is symmetric in the sense that both the splitting and merging of clusters lower the value of the index. In such a non-symmetric case, one of the Wallace indexes (Wallace, 1983) can be used. Further, there are several cases when one wants to compare two partitions obtained on different sets of units, where the intersection of these sets of units is a non-empty set of units. In this instance, the new units and units which leave the clusters from the first partition can be considered as a factor lowering the value of the index. Therefore, a modified Rand index is presented. Because the splitting and merging of clusters have to be considered differently in some situations, an asymmetric modified Wallace Index is also proposed. For all presented indices, the correction for chance is described, which allows different values of a selected index to be compared.

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    Web Survey Paradata on Response Time Outliers: A Systematic Literature Review                                                             

    2018    Miha Matjašič, Vasja Vehovar and Katja Lozar Manfreda; 15(1):23-41         

    In the last two decades, survey researchers have intensively used computerised methods for the collection of different types of paradata, such as keystrokes, mouse clicks and response times, to evaluate and improve survey instruments as well as to understand the survey response process. With the growing popularity of web surveys, the importance of paradata has further increased. Within this context, response time measurement is the prevailing paradata approach. Papers typically analyse the time (measured in milliseconds or seconds) a respondent needs to answer a certain item, question, page or questionnaire. One of the key challenges when analysing the response time is to identify and separate units that are answering too quickly or too slowly. These units can have a poor response quality and are typically labelled as response time outliers. This paper focuses on approaches for identifying and processing response time outliers. It presents a systematic overview of scientific papers on response time outliers in web surveys. The key observed characteristics of the papers are the approaches used, the level of time measurement, the processing of response time outliers and the relationship between response time and response quality. The results show that knowledge on response time outliers is scattered, inconsistent and lacking systematic comparisons of approaches. Consequently, there is a need to improve and upgrade the knowledge on this issue and to develop new approaches that will overcome existing deficiencies and inconsistencies in identifying and dealing with response time outliers.

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    Download the supplementary information (Appendix)

    Behind the Curve and Beyond: Calculating Representative Predicted Probability Changes and Treatment Effects for Non-Linear Models                                       

    2018    Bastian Becker; p. 15(1):43-58         

    Parameter coefficients from non-linear models are inherently difficult to interpret, and scholars frequently opt for computing and comparing predicted probabilities for variables of interest. In an influential article, Hanmer and Ozan Kalkan (2013) discuss the two most common approaches, the average case respectively observed values approach, and make a strong case for the latter. In this paper, I propose a further refinement of the observed values approach for the purpose of computing predicted probability changes. This refinement concerns the use of counterfactual values for the independent variable of interest. I demonstrate that accounting for non-linearities with regards to the variable of interest is important to avoid estimation biases. I also discuss the implications of this insight for estimating average treatment effects from observational data.

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    Download the supplementary information (Computer code)

    Gumbel GARCH Model with Stock Application                                           

    2018    Mehrnaz Mohammadpour and Fatemeh Ziaeenejad; p. 15(1):59-72                                                                               

    The paper proposes a new GARCH model with Gumbel conditional distribution. Several statistical properties of the model are established, like autocorrelation function and stationarity. We consider two methods for estimating the unknown parameters of the model and investigate properties of the estimators. The performances of the estimators are checked by a simulation study. We investigate the application of the process using a real stock data.

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    Internal Evaluation Criteria for Categorical Data in Hierarchical Clustering: Optimal Number of Clusters Determination                   

    2018    Zdeněk Šulc, Jana Cibulková, Jiřı́ Procházka and Hana Řezanková ; p. 15(2):1-20                        

    The paper compares 11 internal evaluation criteria for hierarchical clustering of categorical data regarding a correct number of clusters determination. The criteria are divided into three groups based on a way of treating the cluster quality. The variability-based criteria use the within-cluster variability, the likelihood-based criteria maximize the likelihood function, and the distance-based criteria use distances within and between clusters. The aim is to determine which evaluation criteria perform well and under what conditions. Different analysis settings, such as the used method of hierarchical clustering, and various dataset properties, such as the number of variables or the minimal between-cluster distances, are examined. The experiment is conducted on 810 generated datasets, where the evaluation criteria are assessed regarding the optimal number of clusters determination and mean absolute errors. The results indicate that the likelihood-based BIC1 and variability-based BK criteria perform relatively well in determining the optimal number of clusters and that some criteria, usually the distance-based ones, should be avoided.

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    Download the supplementary information (Zip archive)                                                      

    Mode Effects on Socially Desirable Responding in Web Surveys Compared to Face-to-Face and Telephone Surveys

    2018    Nejc Berzelak and Vasja Vehovar ; p. 15(2):21-43         

    This paper elaborates upon differences in socially desirable responding as being the result of mode effects between web, telephone, and face-to-face survey modes. Social desirability is one of the main threats to comparability of data between different modes. The paper conceptualises socially desirable responding as a specific type of mode effect, which is not only a result of inherent characteristics of a survey mode, but is also mediated and moderated by complex interdependencies of specific survey implementations, contextual factors, and characteristics and behaviours of respondents. While web surveys are generally less prone to socially desirable responding, it is essential to be wary of circumstances that may reduce the perceived privacy of the survey situation and lead to biased reporting. The presented empirical study analyses the answers to a large number of items used in a pilot implementation of the Generations and Gender Survey across the three modes to gain insights into the incidence of socially desirable responding and its role in the observed differences in estimates. The comparison of means, distributions, and proportions of extreme responses to scale questions is performed across 89 survey items. The results are inline with the previous findings on lower susceptibility of web surveys to social desirability bias. More importantly, the findings suggest that the problem of socially desirable responding is likely to be a major contributor to the differences in mean estimates, response distributions, and the level of extreme responding between the studied modes.

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    Download the supplementary information (PDF file)


    Estimation of Power Function Distribution Based on Selective Order Statistic                                      

    2018    Mohd T. Alodat, Mohammad Y. Al-Rawwash and Sameer A. Al-Subh; p. 15(2):45-56         

    In this article, we present the selective order statistic sampling scheme as a promising approach to estimate the parameter of the univariate power function distribution. We derive the maximum likelihood estimator and the method of moments estimator of the power function distribution parameter as well as the reliability parameter and the ratio of two means. Moreover, we derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators. Finally, we conduct simulation studies to investigate the performance of the selective order statistic scheme and concluded that it suits the power function distribution and we found that the maximum likelihood estimator is better than the method of moments estimator under the selective order statistic sampling scheme.

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    Download the supplementary information (PDF file)


  • Podelitev priznanj Statističnega društva Slovenije za leto 2018

    Ob zaključku tradicionalnega letnega srečanja ‘Statistični dan’ 14. 1. 2019 na Brdu pri Kranju podelili smo priznanja društva za leto 2018:

    • Blejčevo priznanje Statističnega društva Slovenije je prejel dr. Vasja Vehovar.
    • Častni član Statističnega društva Slovenije je postal prof. dr. Herwig Friedl.
    Foto: Statistično društvo Slovenije, 2019
    • Priznanje za odličnost statističnega poročanja v medijih je  prejelo uredništvo portala Pod črto.
    Taja Topolovec, uredništvo portala Pod črto
    Foto: Statistično društvo Slovenije, 2019
  • Konferenca “Symbolic Data Analysis Workshop – SDA2018”, 18. – 20. 10. 2018

    Vljudno vabljeni na delavnico na temo Symbolic Data Analysis – SDA2018, bo potekala med 18 in 20 oktobrom 2018 na Politehničnem institutu v Viana do Castelo.

    Rok za oddajo prispevkov je 22 julij.

    Več o delavnici na naslovu https://sda2018.wixsite.com/ipvc.  

    Symbolic Data Analysis (SDA) provides a framework for the representation and analysis of data that comprehends inherent variability. While in Data Mining and classical Statistics the data to be analyzed usually presents one single value for each variable, that is no longer the case when the entities under analysis are not single elements, but groups gathered on the basis of some given criteria. Then, for each variable, variability inherent to each group should be taken into account. Also, when analysing concepts, such as botanic species, disease descriptions, car models, and so on, data entail intrinsic variability, which should be explicitly considered. To this purpose, new variable types have been introduced, whose realizations are not single real values or categories, but sets, intervals, or,more generally, distributions over a given domain. SDA provides methods for the (multivariate) analysis of such data, where the variability expressed in the data representation is taken into account, using various approaches. Brito, P. (2014). Symbolic data analysis: Another look at the interaction of data mining and statistics. WIREs Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, 4 (4), 281–295. doi: 10.1002/widm.1133
  • BILTEN Statističnega društva Slovenije, april 2018

    VSEBINA

    • Uvod

    Priznanja Statističnega društva Slovenije 2017

    • Podelitev priznanj
    • Prejemnica Blejčevega priznanja
    • Priznanje odličnosti statističnega poročanja v medijih
    • Častni član Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Priznanja mladih statistikov
    • Uporaba psevdo vrednosti v analizi relativnega preživetja
    • Generiranje omrežij z upoštevanjem različnih tipov triad
    • Intervali zaupanja za test Mann-Whitney

    Ob 70-letnici prof. dr. Anuške Ferligoj

    Domači in mednarodni dogodki

    • Konferenca Uporabna statistika 2017
    • Uvajanje e-poročanja na kratkoročnih poslovnih statistikah
    • Statistični dan 2018 – Moč podatkov
    • Strokovni seminar – Kombinirani načini zbiranja podatkov
    • 22. srečanje mladih statistikov – Kaj raziskujejo doktorski študenti statistike?
    • Delavnica o simbolni analizi podatkov SDA 2017
    • Razvrščanje simbolnih podatkov z relacijsko omejitvijo: Demografske strukture po spolu in starosti po Evropi
    • Konferenca ICOS2017 v Sarajevu
    • Letno srečanje skupine V7

    Aktualno

    • Dvajset let arhiva družboslovnih podatkov
    • Konzorcij arhivov družboslovnih podatkov (CESSDA)
    • Statistika za boljši svet
    • Evropske statistične igre
    • Dogodki Ekonomske fakultete v Ljubljani

    Izobraževanje

    • Predavanja na IBMI – Vzorci v glasbi
    • Povzetki doktorskih disertacij

    Raziskujemo

    • Uporaba mikro podatkov za razvoj mikrosimulacijskih modelov
    • Vpliv volitev in drugih pomembnejših dogodkov na zaupanje potrošnikov v Sloveniji

    Zanimivo

    • Nemoč anketnih raziskav

    Skupščina

    • Zapisnik 26. redne skupščine Statističnega društva Slovenije
  • The 22th European Young Statisticians Meeting, 13. – 15. 10. 2017

    The 22th European Young Statisticians Meeting will take place at the School of Medicine, Andrija Stampar School of Public Health, University of Zagreb in Zagreb, Croatia, 13. – 15. October 2017.
    Participating countries are Austria, Slovenia, Hungary, Italy, and Croatia.

    YSM history

    It has turned out that every event in this series of meetings successfully established a platform especially tailored for younger statisticians without major experiences in giving talks in English to an international audience. We always tried to enable them a nice first step into their life as a scientist without a large amount of stress. An interesting variety of different topics from the large scope of statistics should be covered and no limitation on any special topic will be given. The conference language will be English.The Scientific Program will only include oral presentations of about 30 minutes each given by younger statisticians. Usually these are very well prepared and of excellent quality. Youngsters interested in participating should contact the representative of the according country from the International Program Committee.
    Program
    Accomodation
    Sponsors
    Some Useful Links
    Parking in Piran
    Photos

    Contact Information:
    Anuška Ferligoj (Local Organizer), Anuska.Ferligoj@fdv.uni-lj.si
    University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Social Sciences
    Kardeljeva pl. 5, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
  • Bilten ob 40-letnici delovanja društva

    VSEBINA

    • Uvod
    • Časovnica 40 let

    Mandatno obdobje 2007-2008

    • 14. redna skupščina Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Interdisciplinirani podiplomski program Statistika
    • Kodeks ravnanja evropske statistike
    • Revija Metodološki zvezki v letu 2007
    • Delo izvršnega odbora
    • Predavanje na Inštitut za biostatistiko in medicinsko informatiko 2007
    • Statistično posvetovanje – Radenci 2007
    • Predsedovanje Slovenije svetu EU na področju statistike
    • Predavanje na Inštitut za biostatistiko in medicinsko informatiko 2008
    • 15. redna skupščina Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Mednarodna metodološka poletna šola 2008
    • Konferenca Uporabna statistika 2008
    • 13. srečanje mladih statistikov
    • Statistično posvetovanje – Radenci 2008
    • 16. redna skupščina Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Deset let Arhiva družboslovnih podatkov
    • Revija Metodološki zvezki v letu 2008

    Mandatno obdobje 2009-2010

    • 17. redna skupščina Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Revija Metodološki zvezki v letu 2009
    • Mednarodna metodološka poletna šola 2009
    • Statistično posvetovanje – Radenci 2009
    • 18. redna skupščina Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Konferenca ICOST-8 v Ljubljani
    • 15. srečanje mladih statistikov
    • 20. mednarodno posvetovanje statistikov – Radenci 2010
    • Populariziranje statistike
    • Popis kmetijstva 2010

    Mandatno obdobje 2011-2012

    • 19. redna skupščina Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Prijava na razpis za sofinanciranje konference
    • Mednarodno posvetovanje statistikov – Radenci 2011
    • Registrski popis prebivalstva 2011
    • Metodološki priročniki
    • Prva podelitev priznanj Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Nov logotip društva
    • Selitev SURS-a in sedeža SdS v palačo DSU
    • SdS in SURS skleneta sporazum o sodelovanju
    • 20. redna skupščina Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Volitve predsedstva Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Deset let izvajanja doktorskega študijskega programa Statistika
    • Doktorski študijski program Statistika
    • Ustanovitev in izvajanje magistrskega programa uporabna statistika na UL
    • Poletna šola družboslovnih metod in tehnik 2012
    • Konferenca Uporabna statistika 2012
    • 17. srečanje mladih statistikov
    • Zaključki statističnih dnevov 2012 – Radenci 2012

    Mandatno obdobje 2013-2014

    • 21. redna skupščina Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Novo vodstvo na Statističnem uradu RS
    • Predsednik društva je postal redni profesor
    • Revija metodološki zvezki v letu 2013
    • Mednarodni statistični inštitut
    • Srečanje predstavnikov statističnih društev V6 v letu 2013
    • Blog Udomačena statistika v letu 2013
    • Statistični dan 2013
    • Podelitev priznanj Statističnega društva Slovenije za leto 2013
    • 70 let slovenske uradne statistike
    • 22. redna skupščina Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Svet združenja Mednarodnega statističnega inštituta
    • Srečanje šestih statističnih društev V6 v letu 2014
    • Konferenca evropske federacije statističnih deležnikov FENStatS
    • Blog Udomačena statistika v letu 2014
    • Revija Metodološki zvezki v letu 2014
    • Statistični dan 2014
    • Podelitev priznanj Statističnega društva Slovenije za leto 2014

    Mandatno obdobje 2015-2016

    • 23. redna skupščina Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Podelitev priznanj Statističnega društva Slovenije za leto 2015
    • Statistični dan 2015
    • Drugi svetovni dan statistike 2015
    • Revija Metodološki zvezki v letu 2015
    • 24. redna skupščina Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Volilna skupščina Statističnega društva Slovenije
    • Podelitev priznanj Statističnega društva Slovenije za leto 2016
    • Konferenca Uporabna statistika 2016
    • 21. srečanje mladih statistikov
    • Evropska noč raziskovalcev
    • Prejemnika nagrade odlični v znanosti 2016

    Leto 2017

    • 26. redna skupščina Statističnega društva Slovenije Statistični dan 2017 Prvi Svetovni forum združenih narodov o podatkih

    In za konec

    V spomin

    Opombe

  • Podelitev priznanj Statističnega društva Slovenije 2016, 24. 1. 2017

    Ob zaključku tradicionalnega letnega srečanja ‘Statistični dan’, ki ga v sodelovanju pripravljamo Statistično društvo Slovenije in Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, smo 24. 1. na Brdu pri Kranju podelili priznanja društva za leto 2016. 

    Ob uvodu v dogodek je predsednik društva izr. prof. dr. Matevž Bren predstavil vsebino in način izbora nagrajencev. Društvena priznanja, Blejčevo priznanje (imenovano pa prof. dr. Marijanu Blejcu, začetniku moderne statistike v Sloveniji) za vrhunske dosežke v statistiki, častni član društva in priznanje za odličnost statističnega poročanja v medijih podeljujemo od leta 2012. Tudi v letu 2016 smo v juniju objavili razpis za predloge nagrajencev, društvena komisija za priznanja pa je na seji 13. 9. 2016 izbrala nagrajence. Izbor je potrdil IO društva. 

    Blejčevo priznanje je prejel prof. dr. Andrej Blejec, zaposlen na Nacionalnem inštitutu za biologijo v Ljubljani. Prof. Blejec je redni profesor statistike na Oddelku za biologijo Biotehniške fakultete ter predava tudi na doktorskem študiju Statistike in magistrskem študiju Uporabna statistika Univerze v Ljubljani.

    prof. dr. Andrej Blejec
    Foto: Statistično društvo Slovenije, 2017

    Častna članica društva je postala prof. dr. Blaženka Košmelj, upokojena profesorica Univerze v Ljubljani. Prof. Košmeljeva je prve dni januarja umrla, tako smo ji priznanje podelili posthumno.

    Priznanje za odličnost statističnega poročanju v medijih pa je prejela dr. Mojca Vizjak Pavšič, znanstvena novinarka.

    dr. Mojca Vizjak Pavšič
    Foto: Statistično društvo Slovenije, 2017

    Utemeljitve priznanj: prof. dr. Andrej Blejecprof. dr. Blaženka Košmeljdr. Mojca Vizjak Pavšič

    Na slovesnosti je utemeljitev za Blejčevo priznanje podal prof. dr. Janez Stare, prof. dr. Anuška Ferligoj za častno članico društva in izr. prof. dr. Matevž Bren za odličnost statističnega poročanju v medijih. Pri slednjem so sodelovali tudi lanski nagrajenci, snovalci bloga Udomačena statistika.


    Predsednik Statističnega društva Slovenije 
    izr. prof. dr. Matevž Bren

    Ljubljana, 2. 2. 2017

    prof. dr. Andrej Blejec, dr. Mojca Vizjak Pavšič, izr. prof. dr. Matevž Bren, predsednik Statističnega društva Slovenije

    Foto: Statistično društvo Slovenije, 2017