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  • Februarsko predavanje: Lessons learned from using Tweedie’s compound Poisson model (28. 2. 2020)

    Data is rarely as straightforward as we hope or as we are usually taught. One of the biggest challenges I’ve faced in my academic career was analyzing the data from my Master’s research. Without this challenge, I’m not sure I would have developed such an interest in statistics or data science. My Master’s research addressed a problem that may seem simple on the surface: how do we quantify a certain type of defect in the surface of wood furniture? My task was to develop a method to measure a particular phenomenon, but my advisors hadn’t envisioned any particular challenges in analyzing the data once it was collected. Apart from the data collection challenges (which will be mentioned briefly), there were several challenges with the data. First, we weren’t sure which attribute to include in our model the number of defects detected or the size of the defects (does one matter more to customers?) – we had both count data and continuous data. Second, there were a lot of zeroes in our data – the defect didn’t always occur. Third, our experiment had mixed effects – not all features were evenly distributed across all specimens (we used a blocked split-plot design). Finally, our data was not parametric, making determining both point estimates and confidence intervals challenging – the eventual solution was bootstrapping. This presentation will introduce the real-world problem (cracks in decorative veneered plywood) along with the data collection methodology (digital image correlation), the experimental design challenges, and the analytical approach taken.

    Related outputs:

    • Burnard, M.D., Muszyński, L., Leavengood, S., Ganio, L., Burnard, M.D., (2018). An optical method for rapid examination of check development in decorative plywood panels. Eur. J. Wood Wood Prod. 0, 0. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00107-018-1327-7
    • Burnard, M., Leavengood, S., Muszyński, L., Ganio, L., (2019). Investigating face veneer check development in decorative plywood panels: the impact of four common manufacturing factors. Eur. J. Wood Wood Prod. 77, 961–979. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00107-019-01455-2
    • Burnard, M. & Ganio, L. (2019) Inspecting, Plotting, & Modelling Check Density in Decorative Maple Veneered Plywood Panels. [Online]. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.6964862.v1

    Predavateljdoc. dr. Michael D. Burnard, InnoRenew CoE in Univerza na Primorskem, Inštitut Andrej Marušič
    Naslov predavanja:Lessons learned from using Tweedie’s compound Poisson model
    Datum:petek, 28. 2. 2020 ob 12:00
    Lokacija:IBMI, Vrazov trg 2, Ljubljana

  • 17th Applied Statistics, International Conference 2020 postponed to 19-22 Sept 2021

    17th Applied Statistics, International Conference 2020 postponed to 19-22 Sept 2021

    Dear colleagues and friends,

    We regret to announce, that due to the outbreak of the COVID-19
    and the introduced uncertaintes Applied Statistics 2020 conference is postponed to 2021.

    The conference is now scheduled for September 19 – 22, 2021.

    The aim of the conference (organized yearly since 2004) is to bring together statisticians, working in diverse fields of statistics and its applications.

    Conference details are available at http://conferences.nib.si/AS2020

  • Metodološki zvezki, Vol. 16, No. 1 & 2, 2019

    Advances in Methodology and Statistics

    An Empirical Likelihood Ratio Based Comparative Study on Tests for Normality of Residuals in Linear Models

    2019    Chioneso Show Marange and Yongsong Qin16(1):1-16

    The application of goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests in linear regression modeling is a common practice in applied statistical sciences. For instance, in simple linear regression the assumption of normality of residuals is always necessary to test before making any further inferences. The growing popularity of the use of powerful and efficient empirical likelihood ratio (ELR) based GoF tests in checking for departures from normality in various continuous distributions can be of great use in checking for distributional assumptions of residuals in linear models. Motivated by the attractive properties of the ELR based GoF tests the researchers conducted an extensive Type I error rate assessment as well as a Monte Carlo power comparison of selected ELR GoF tests with well-known existing tests against symmetric and asymmetric alternative OLS and BLUS residuals. Under the simulated scenarios, all the studied tests have good control of Type I error rates. The Monte Carlo experiments revealed the superiority of the ELR GoF tests under certain alternatives of both the OLS and BLUS residuals. Our findings also demonstrated the superiority of OLS over BLUS residuals when one is testing for normality in simple linear regression models. A real data study further revealed the applicability of the ELR based GoF tests in testing normality of residuals in linear regression models.

    Download the paper

    Download the supplementary information (Appendix)

    Mechanisms Generating Asymmetric Core-Cohesive Blockmodels

    2019    Marjan Cugmas, Aleš Žiberna and Anuška Ferligoj16(1):17-41

    The paper addresses the relationship between different local network mechanisms and different global network structures, described by blockmodels. The research question is narrowed to the context of preschool children networks. Based on the studies regarding friendship, liking and interactional networks among preschool children, the popularity, transitivity, mutuality and assortativity mechanisms are assumed to be important for the evolution of such networks. It is assumed that the global network structure is defined by an asymmetric core-cohesive blockmodel consisting of one core group of units and two or more cohesive groups of units. Therefore, the main research question is whether the emergence of an asymmetric core-cohesive blockmodel can be a result of the influence of the listed mechanisms. Different initial global network structures are considered. Monte Carlo simulations were used. The relative fit measure is proposed and used to compare different blockmodel types on generated networks. The results show that the listed mechanisms indeed lead to the assumed global network structure.

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    Download the supplementary information (Appendix)

    Two Stage Adaptive Cluster Sampling based on Ordered Statistics

    2019 Girish Chandra, Neeraj Tiwari and Raman Nautiyal; 16(1): 43-60

    The estimation problem on sparsely distributed populations using adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) is discussed. In the first phase of ACS, two stage sampling is used in which primary and secondary sampling units are selected using simple random sampling without replacement. The idea of Thompson (1996) is introduced in order to choose an appropriate fixed value of pre-specified condition, which might represent the number of rare species, before conducting the survey by the use of order statistics. Different estimators of the population mean under the two possible schemes (open and closed boundaries of primary sampling units) are studied and the Rao-Blackwell theorem for improving these estimators is also used. Numerical illustrations, one on real life data and the other based on simulation study, are discussed for these two schemes. This design may be quite useful in environmental, forestry and other areas of research dealing with rare, endangered or threatened species.

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    Effects of the Same-Gender vs. Cross-Gender Mentoring on a Protégé Outcome in Academia: An Exploratory Study

    2019 Metka Kogovšek and Irena Ograjenšek; 16(1): 61-78

    Mentoring seems to be an important way to start and advance individual researcher’s career in science. Therefore, it is essential to examine the factors related to successful mentoring in order to find ways of efficiently supporting young academics on their career development path. Building on the similarity-attraction and social identity theories, our research indicates that gender similarity in academic mentoring might be related to the protégés’ postdoctoral publication scores that lead to career advancement. The scores in a typical five-year publication cycle are higher for the protégés situated within same-gender mentoring dyads. Furthermore, the mentors’ research performance importantly adds to the protégés’ postdoctoral research performance.

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    Delphi Method: Strengths and Weaknesses

    2019 Danica Fink-Hafner, Tamara Dagen, May Doušak, Meta Novak, and Mitja Hafner-Fink; 16(2): 1-19

    The paper presents the Delphi method and tests its usefulness when searching for a consensus on definitions, especially in a particular social science field. Based on an overview of the characteristics and uses of the Delphi method, a special Delphi design for searching for minimal common definitions of globalisation, Europeanisation and internationalisation in higher education and their mutual relationships is presented in detail. While the method proved valuable, its strengths and weaknesses are also discussed. Finally, ideas for adjusting the Delphi method are proposed.

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    Wellbeing Assessment Yardstick: Evidence from the Elderly Wellbeing across Russian Subnational Macro-Regions

    2019 Irina Pavlova, Ilya Gumennikov, Evgeny Monastyrny, and Elena Golubeva; 16(2): 21-40

    Although Russia manifests some dynamics in its national policy on ageing, it still lacks comprehensive tools for the older generation wellbeing assessment both on national and regional levels. This research work is an ongoing project aimed at the development of the composite index (composite indicator) to assess the elderly population wellbeing in Russia for cross-regional comparison to equip Russian policy-makers with an essential tool and relevant reliable data to facilitate the decision-making and policy design at national, regional and local levels. The paper discusses the possibility of selecting relevant data from the pool of the official state statistics indicators to assess the elderly generation’s wellbeing in 85 regions of the Russian Federation by four index domains (economic, social, health and regional environment dimensions). Due to a high geographical and territorial heterogeneity, this index can be advised to be adopted as a potential tool to monitor wellbeing across Russian regions with the focus on policy development for macro-regions. This grouping of regions can minimize transaction costs of bargaining on behalf of the 85 regions while developing national policies and strategies. The paper employs the Russian Elderly Wellbeing Index (REWI) to compare calculation results for 2014 and 2016 as well as addresses the issue of elderly population wellbeing analysis on the meso level in the context of federal districts. The authors run cluster analysis for the REWI indicators to compare clusters of Russian regions and federal districts.

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    Measuring Personal Networks with Surveys

    2019 Tina Kogovšek and Valentina Hlebec; 6(2): 41-55

    Like in other fields of inquiry in the social sciences, in social network research the most frequently used measurement method is the survey. Compared with other measurement objects such as networks of opinions, attitudes or values, measurement is more complex and thus often more challenging. Measurement typically occurs in two main phases. First, network units are measured (generated). Second, the relationships among the units and other unit characteristics (e.g. demographic properties) are determined, while some specific questions arise as to whether whole or egocentric (personal) networks are to be measured. In this paper, we limit ourselves to measuring personal networks, especially when compared with different methods for generating networks. There are five basic approaches to generating a personal network: name generator, role generator, event generator, positional generator, and contextual generator. Each is associated with particular research goals, costs (financial, time, respondent burden), advantages, and limitations. Moreover, the complexity and specifics of generating networks mean one must consider the characteristics of data collection modes (e.g. face-to-face, telephone, web). In this sense, we will present the advantages and limits of various methods of generating personal networks, evaluate them critically and comparatively, and illustrate them with often used examples.

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    Download the supplementary information 2 (PDF file)
    Download the supplementary information 3 (PDF file)
    Download the supplementary information 4 (PDF file)

    The Bad Mathematics of the Bad Luck Theory

    2019 Mariia Beliaeva; 6(2): 58-69

    The mathematics of the Bad Luck theory of carcinogenesis by Tomasetti and Vogelstein generated a great deal of controversy among cancer specialists but did not draw the mathematicians’ attention. Thus the gross mathematical mistakes of the theory foundation did not get a proper critique and remained unnoticed. As a result, the sensational quantitative estimates of the role of Bad Luck in cancer occurrence, though being erroneous, have spread widely among researchers and the general public and got the unfair popularity. The present paper reviews the actual mathematical mistakes of Bad Luck theory.

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  • Drugo srečanje Mlade sekcije 22. 1. 2020

    Mlada sekcija Statističnega društva Slovenije vabi na svoje drugo srečanje v sredo, 22. 1. 2020, ob 19. uri na Fakulteti za družbene vede (Kardeljeva ploščad 5, Ljubljana) v predavalnici 10 v pritličju. Tema tokratnega srečanja bo uradna statistika, ki jo bo na zanimiv način predstavil dr. Bojan Nastav, direktor Statističnega urada RS.

    Več v objavi na blogu Udomačena statistika…

  • Podelitev priznanj za leto 2019

    Za leto 2019 sta bili podeljeni naslednji priznanji:

    • Častni član Statističnega društva Slovenije je postal Bogdan Grmek.
    • Priznanje za odličnost statističnega poročanja v medijih je prejel Martin Bajželj.
    Brdo pri Kranju, Kongresni center Brdo. Statisticni dan 2020 na temo podnebne krize. Bogdan Grmek iz Statističnega urada RS je postal častni član Statističnega društva.
    Brdo pri Kranju, Kongresni center Brdo. Statisticni dan 2020 na temo podnebne krize. Martin Bajzelj iz Statisticnega urada RS je prejel priznanje odlicnosti statisticnega porocanja v medijih.
    Brdo pri Kranju, Kongresni center Brdo. Statisticni dan 2020 na temo podnebne krize.
    Bogdan Grmek in Martin Bajzelj.
  • Januarsko predavanje: Analiza sotveganj v relativnem preživetju (9. 1. 2020)

    Izr. prof. dr. Maja Pohar Perme bo imela javno nastopno predavanje pred izvolitvijo v naziv redne profesorice za področje Biostatistika in biomedicinska informatika v četrtek, 9.1. 2020, ob 14.00 v srednji predavalnici na Medicinski fakulteti UL (Korytkova 2). Na predavanje vabimo tudi vse, ki se udeležujete mesečnih predavanj biostatističnega centra.

    Predavateljizr. prof. dr. Maja Pohar Perme, MF, UL
    Naslov predavanja:Analiza sotveganj v relativnem preživetju – javno nastopno predavanje
    Datum:četrtek, 9. 1. 2020 ob 14h
    Lokacija:Srednja predavalnica, Medicinska fakulteta, Korytkova 2, Ljubljana
    https://udomacenastatistika.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/2015-05-13-18-37-23-2_face_crop.jpg
    dr. Maja Perme
    (vir: Udomačena statistika)

  • Sodelovanje na 3. Evropskih statističnih igrah

    Statistični urad RS je objavil razpis za srednješolsko tekmovanje 3. Evropske statistične igre. Za prijavo na tekmovanje lahko učitelji do vključno 14. januarja 2020 skupaj z dijaki sestavijo ekipe in jih v vlogi mentorjev prijavijo preko spletnega obrazca. Na tekmovanje, ki poteka najprej na šolski, nato na državni in na koncu na evropski ravni, se lahko pod mentorstvom svojih učiteljev prijavijo vsi dijaki, in sicer kot ekipe z enim, dvema ali tremi člani.

    Preizkusili se bodo v reševanju različnih statističnih nalog, v iskanju podatkov o Sloveniji in evropskih državah ter pri izdelavi statistične analize.

    Več informacij o tekmovanju je dosegljivih na stat.si/igre.

    SURS v sodelovanju s Statističnim društvom pripravlja tudi brezplačni seminar za srednješolske učitelje. Seminar Statistična pismenost in 3. Evropske statistične igre se bo v novembru in decembru izvajal na različnih srednjih šolah. Datumi in podrobnosti glede lokacij seminarjev so dostopni na povezavi, kjer se je možno tudi prijaviti: https://vpr.stat.si/statigreseminar (prijavo na seminar je treba oddati najmanj dva delovna dneva pred seminarjem)

    Program seminarja:
    1. del: Statistični podatki in produkti SURS ter Evropske statistične igre (koordinatorji tekmovanja, SURS), 2 uri
    2. del: Uporabnost statistike in statistična pismenost (predavatelji iz Statističnega društva*), 2 uri

    Dodatne informacije v zvezi s tekmovanjem in seminarji lahko dobite tudi na elektronskem naslovu: statigre.surs@gov.si

    Vabljeni k sodelovanju na 3. Evropskih statističnih igrah in k prijavi na seminar!

  • Prvo srečanje Mlade sekcije Statističnega društva

    Naslednji teden organiziramo 1. srečanje Mlade sekcije Statističnega društva. Na dogodku bo imela dr. Katarina Košmelj predavanje o načrtovanju eksperimentov. Več informacij o dogodku je v novici na blogu Udomačena statistika.

    Predavanje je odprto za vse člane, ne le za Mlado sekcijo.

    Mlada sekcija Statističnega društva Slovenije je bila ustanovljena na predlog snovalcev bloga Udomačena statistika na skupščini Statističnega društva Slovenije (SdS) v četrtek, 28. 3. 2019.

    Sekcija bo s formalnim delovanjem pričela v jeseni 2019. Naše aktivnosti smo razdelili na štiri večje sklope:

    1. Prirejanje statističnih dogodkov: serija statističnih seminarjev, ki bodo potekali redno, dvomesečno v eno ali dvournih srečanjih; redna mesečna srečanja sekcije; organizacija raznolikega programa dogodkov na letni konferenci Applied Statistics;
    2. Blog in spletni mediji: redno objavljanje članov sekcije na blogu Udomačene statistike; moderiranje Facebook skupine Udomačeni statistiki (skupina); urejanje Facebook in Twitter profila Udomačena statistika; aktivnosti v drugih medijih;
    3. Mednarodno povezovanje s sorodnimi sekcijami: aktivno sodelovanje v pobudi Young Statisticians Europe (YSE); projekt mednarodnega bloga; trajnejše sodelovanje s sorodnimi sekcijami v sosednjih državah;
    4. Vključevanje v izobraževanje na področju statistike: sodelovanje pri projektih, kot so Evropske statistične igre; aktivnosti za študente magistrskih in doktorskih programov statistike in sorodnih.

    Vljudno vas vabimo na prvi, spoznavni dogodek v torek, 19. 11. 2019, ob 19. uri v Poligonu (Tobačna ulica 5, Ljubljana).

    Srečanje bomo pričeli s predavanjem red. prof. dr. Katarine Košmelj (Biotehniška fakulteta Univerze v Ljubljani) o načrtovanju eksperimentov, v okviru katerega bomo reproducirali znani Fisherjev eksperiment z okušanjem čaja opisan v knjigi The Lady Tasting Tea. Sledilo bo prvo zasedanje sekcije.

    Dogodek je brezplačen, prosimo pa, da se nanj prijavite preko obrazca Eventbrite.

    Najlepše povabljeni, upamo, da se vidimo v čim večjem številu!

  • Novembrsko predavanje: Artificial intelligence methods in digital forensics (15. 11. 2019)

    prof.dr. Andreja Tepavčević
    source: Prirodno- matematički fakultet Novi Sad

    Aims, activities and some preliminary results of COST Action CA17124 – Digital forensics: evidence analysis via intelligent systems and practices DigForASP, will be presented.

    Digital forensics deals with digital evidence recovery and exploitation in order to solve criminal cases using sophisticated methods, examining fragmented incomplete knowledge, and reconstructing and aggregating complex scenarios. There is no established methodology for digital evidence analysis. This COST Action explore potential of the application of artificial intelligence and automated reasoning in the Digital Forensics field, in particular, in the evidence analysis phase, where evidence about possible crimes, collected from various electronic devices, are investigated in order to reconstruct possible events, event sequences and scenarios related to a crime.

    Some preliminary ideas about potentials of fuzzy measure in forensics metadata analysis will be presented.

    PredavateljProf.dr. Andreja Tepavčević, Department of Mathematics and Informatics, Faculty of Science, University of Novi Sad, Serbia
    Naslov predavanja:Artificial intelligence methods in digital forensics
    Datum:petek, 15. november 2019 ob 12:30
    Lokacija:IBMI, Vrazov trg 2, Ljubljana

  • Oktobrsko predavanje: Metodološki izzivi merjenja inovacijskih aktivnosti mikro podjetij (29. 10. 2019)

    Dr. Ana Slavec

    Slovenija velja za regijo, ki zaostaja za inovacijami, kar je še posebej opazno v gozdno-lesni verigi. Hkrati pa v okviru slovenske strategije pametne specializacije poudarjajo, da ima ta panoga velik potencial za rast. Da bi lahko kar najbolje izkoristili inovacijski potencial gozdno-lesne verige, moramo najprej poglobljeno razumeti obstoječe inovacijske dejavnosti in razloge za njihovo pomanjkanje. Medtem ko je o inovacijskih dejavnostih malih, srednjih in velikih podjetij na voljo veliko literature, je o mikro podjetjih (tj. podjetjih z manj kot 10 zaposlenimi) zelo malo znanega, kar je verjetno posledica pomanjkanja podatkov. Na ravni EU podatke o inovacijskih dejavnostih zbira Eurostatova anketa o inovacijskih dejavnostih v industriji in izbranih storitvenih dejavnostih (Community Innovation Survey, CIS), ki se vsaki dve leti izvaja od leta 2006. Vendar raziskava vključuje samo podjetja z 10 ali več zaposlenimi.

    Ker mikro podjetja predstavljajo več kot 90 % podjetij v slovenski gozdno-lesni verigi, so za ustrezno razumevanje inovativnosti v tem sektorju nujni podatki o njihovih inovacijskih dejavnostih. Zato smo izvedli lastno raziskavo tržnih in inovacijskih dejavnosti slovenskih podjetij v tem sektorju, pri čemer smo zajeli podjetja vseh velikosti. Kot vzorčni okvir smo uporabili poslovni register Bizi.si – glede na majhno pričakovano stopnjo odziva smo se odločili vključiti celotno populacijo. Razvili smo krajši vprašalnik, ki temelji na instrumentu CIS, in ga poslali 7123 podjetjem v gozdno-lesni verigi, pri čemer smo jim ponudili možnost odgovora bodisi na papirju bodisi na spletu. Podjetjem v pohištveni in lesnopredelovalni industriji smo poslali tudi drugo pismo in v teh dveh sektorjih dosegli več kot 7-odstotno stopnjo odgovora. V predavanju bodo predstavljeni metodološki izzivi raziskovanja mikro podjetij in izračuni pristranskosti, do katere pride, če mikro podjetij v raziskavah ne upoštevamo.

    Predavatelj dr. Ana Slavec, InnoRenew CoE
    Naslov predavanja:Metodološki izzivi merjenja inovacijskih aktivnosti mikro podjetij
    Datum:torek, 29. oktober 2019 ob 13:00
    Lokacija:IBMI, Vrazov trg 2, Ljubljana